Iran has warned that any renewed war with the United States would last longer and cost more than the 12-day conflict in June, as tensions rise over the Strait of Hormuz and as Tehran and Washington hold indirect talks in Qatar about a possible diplomatic path.
The warning, delivered by senior Iranian officials in recent days, comes after a series of explosions damaged oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, a vital waterway for global oil shipments. Iran has denied responsibility for the explosions, which it blamed on mines, but the United States and its allies have said Iran is likely behind them.
A warning about a longer, costlier war
Iranian officials say a new war would not be limited to airstrikes and missile exchanges, as the June conflict was. They say it would involve a broader regional confrontation, with Iranian proxies in Lebanon, Yemen and Iraq joining the fight, and with attacks on US bases and allies across the Middle East.
“Any renewed war would last longer and cost more,” a senior Iranian official said, according to state media. “The United States should understand that it cannot win a war with Iran by bombing alone.”
The warning is aimed at both Washington and at regional allies, including Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, which Iran says would be at risk if a war broke out.
Hormuz tensions and oil tankers
The Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway between Iran and Oman, carries about a fifth of the world’s oil shipments. Any disruption to traffic through the strait would have global economic consequences, raising oil prices and disrupting supply chains.
In recent weeks, several oil tankers have been damaged by explosions that officials say were caused by mines. Iran has denied planting the mines, but Western officials say the pattern of attacks is consistent with Iranian tactics.
Iran has also threatened to close the strait if it is attacked, a threat it has made repeatedly in past crises. The United States has said it would keep the strait open by force if necessary, setting up a potential confrontation.
Doha talks and a two-day plan
Despite the tensions, Iran and the United States are holding indirect talks in Doha, Qatar, mediated by Qatari officials. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has presented a two-day plan for negotiations, which he says could lead to a broader agreement on Iran’s nuclear programme and on regional security.
The plan, according to Iranian officials, would involve Iran taking steps to limit its nuclear programme in exchange for sanctions relief and security guarantees. The United States has not publicly responded to the plan, but officials say they are open to diplomacy if Iran is serious.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio has said no decision has been made on whether to accept the Iranian proposal, and that the United States is still evaluating its options. Rubio has also said the United States will not allow Iran to develop a nuclear weapon, regardless of the outcome of talks.
Trump, strikes and the midterms
President Donald Trump has said he is considering strikes on Iran after the midterm elections, if diplomacy fails. Trump has also said he would prefer a deal, but that he is prepared to use military force if necessary.
Trump’s advisers are divided on the issue, with some urging a diplomatic solution and others pushing for a military strike. The decision is likely to be made after the midterms, when Trump will have a clearer picture of his political standing.
Iranian officials say they are aware of Trump’s comments and are preparing for both outcomes. They say they would prefer diplomacy, but are ready for war if it comes.
What happens next
The next steps will depend on the Doha talks and on the outcome of the US midterms. If the talks make progress, a diplomatic agreement could reduce tensions and avert a war. If they fail, the risk of a military confrontation will rise.
For now, both sides are talking and threatening at the same time, a pattern that has defined US-Iran relations for decades. The warning from Tehran is a reminder that a war would be costly for both sides, and for the wider region.
Whether diplomacy can succeed will become clearer in the coming weeks, as the Doha talks continue and as the United States decides whether to accept Iran’s two-day plan or to pursue a different approach.
Sources
USN reviewed reporting from multiple outlets for this story. Read more from Reuters, The New York Times, and Al Jazeera.