The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell last week to the lowest level in more than half a century, the Labor Department reported on Thursday, in the latest sign that layoffs across the United States remain scarce even as the pace of hiring has cooled. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped by 6,000 to a seasonally adjusted 189,000 for the week ended October 31, a reading that matched the level touched in mid-July and stood as the lowest since 1969.
The decline was larger than economists had expected. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 196,000 claims for the week, so the reported figure of 189,000 came in 7,000 below that forecast. The result extended a run of subdued weekly claims readings that has now stretched for weeks, and it underlined how little job loss the American labor market has produced through the autumn.
Weekly jobless claims are one of the most closely watched indicators of the health of the labor market because they offer a near-real-time measure of how many workers are newly losing their jobs and seeking state unemployment aid. A low number of initial claims generally means that employers are holding on to their workers rather than cutting staff, while a sustained rise in claims is often one of the earliest signals that layoffs are spreading. On that measure, the latest report points to a labor market in which job security remains strong, even though workers who do lose their jobs may be finding it harder to secure a new one quickly.
The report arrived one day before the Labor Department is scheduled to release its closely watched monthly employment report for October, and it sets the backdrop for that release without directly feeding into it. The weekly claims figures fall outside the October jobs survey period, so they have no bearing on the October jobs report itself. Even so, the claims data have become an important part of the weekly picture of the economy, and the latest reading will be read alongside the monthly figures when they are published on Friday.
US jobless claims 189,000: the lowest reading since 1969
The headline figure of 189,000 initial claims for the week ended October 31 was the lowest weekly reading since 1969, according to the Labor Department report. It matched the level reached in the week ended July 18, when claims had also touched 189,000, and it was the second time this year that the weekly count has fallen to that level.
The drop of 6,000 from the prior week followed an upward revision to the previous week’s figure. The Labor Department revised the count for the prior week up by 1,000 to 195,000, so the decline to 189,000 came from a slightly higher starting point than had first been reported. Even after that revision, the latest reading was comfortably below the level that economists had expected.
The gap between the reported figure and the Reuters forecast of 196,000 was notable because weekly claims have repeatedly come in below expectations in recent weeks. Economists use the weekly claims numbers as a guide to the underlying trend in layoffs, and a reading below the consensus forecast is generally taken as a sign that job losses are running lighter than anticipated. The 189,000 figure also kept claims well below the 200,000 mark, a level that has increasingly come to be seen as a dividing line between a calm labor market and one in which layoffs are beginning to pick up.
Not-seasonally-adjusted initial claims, which reflect the raw number of filings before the Labor Department’s seasonal adjustment is applied, were 176,698 for the week ended October 31. The seasonally adjusted figure of 189,000 is the number that economists and policymakers focus on, because the adjustment is designed to strip out the regular seasonal patterns in hiring and layoffs that recur at the same time each year, such as school-year schedules and holiday hiring. By removing those predictable swings, the adjusted series gives a clearer view of the underlying trend in layoffs.
The fact that the latest reading matched the mid-July low is also significant because it shows that the recent improvement in claims has not been a one-week event. Claims had already reached 189,000 in the week ended July 18, and the return to that level in the final week of October suggests that the low level of layoffs seen in the summer has carried through into the autumn.
Claims have stayed below 200,000 since mid-September
The latest report fits into a longer pattern that has been building since the early autumn. Claims have stayed mostly below 200,000 since mid-September, a stretch of several weeks in which the weekly count has remained at levels that are low by the standards of recent years. That persistence matters because a single low week can be a statistical quirk, but a run of low readings over a period of weeks points to a genuine and sustained low level of layoffs.
Within that run, claims have never topped 230,000 in a single week in 2026 to date. That ceiling is striking because it means that at no point this year has the weekly claims figure reached a level that would normally be associated with a meaningful wave of layoffs. Even in weeks when the count rose, it remained within a range that economists would describe as consistent with a labor market in which employers are largely retaining their staff.
The steadiness of the claims figures stands in contrast to the broader debate about the state of the American economy, in which concerns about slower hiring and a cooling labor market have grown. The claims data suggest that the cooling has shown up more in slower hiring than in outright job losses. Employers may be more cautious about adding new workers, but the figures indicate that they have not turned to widespread layoffs.
That distinction is important for workers and for policymakers alike. A labor market with low layoffs but slow hiring can feel very different from one in which layoffs are rising, even if the headline unemployment rate looks similar. Workers who keep their jobs face less immediate disruption, while workers who do lose a job can face a longer search for a new one. The claims figures capture only the first half of that picture, the flow of people newly losing work, and the latest report shows that flow running at a very low level.
The run of readings below 200,000 since mid-September also helps to explain why the four-week moving average has drifted lower. Because the moving average smooths out the week-to-week volatility in the claims series, a sustained run of low readings gradually pulls the average down, and that is what has happened in recent weeks.
The four-week moving average and the revised prior week
The four-week moving average of initial claims, which economists watch as a steadier guide to the trend than any single week’s figure, dipped to 194,750 in the latest report. The moving average takes the average of the most recent four weeks of claims data, and because it averages out the ups and downs of individual weeks, it is often seen as a more reliable signal of the direction in which layoffs are heading.
A moving average of 194,750 means that, on average, fewer than 195,000 Americans filed new claims for unemployment benefits in each of the past four weeks. That is a low level by historical standards and it is consistent with the picture painted by the weekly readings themselves, which have stayed mostly below 200,000 since mid-September.
The revision to the prior week’s count was small but it is part of the routine process by which the Labor Department updates its figures as more complete data become available. The count for the week before the latest one was revised up by 1,000 to 195,000, which means that the decline to 189,000 in the latest week was measured from a slightly higher base. Revisions of this size are common in the weekly claims series, and the fact that the latest reading remained well below 200,000 even after the upward revision underscores how low the level of new claims has been.
Economists tend to pay close attention to the moving average because a single week of claims data can be affected by short-term factors, including holidays, weather, and administrative delays in processing filings. The four-week average filters out much of that noise, and its decline to 194,750 reinforces the message of the headline figure: layoffs remain scarce.
The not-seasonally-adjusted figure of 176,698 offers a further perspective on the same week. The gap between the adjusted and unadjusted figures reflects the seasonal adjustment process, which accounts for the regular patterns in layoffs that occur at particular times of the year. The adjusted figure is the one that is used for comparisons across weeks and months, and it is the figure that came in at 189,000.
Continuing claims rise to 1.718 million
While new claims fell, the number of people continuing to receive unemployment benefits after an initial week of aid rose. Continuing claims, which are widely used as a proxy for hiring because they show how many people remain on benefits rather than finding new work, increased by 23,000 to a seasonally adjusted 1.718 million during the week ended October 24.
The rise in continuing claims points in a different direction from the fall in initial claims, and the contrast between the two measures captures an important feature of the current labor market. Fewer people are newly losing their jobs, but those who have lost their jobs appear to be staying on benefits for longer, which suggests that finding a new job has become more difficult than it was when hiring was stronger.
Continuing claims are reported with a one-week lag behind initial claims, so the 1.718 million figure relates to the week ended October 24, while the 189,000 initial claims figure relates to the week ended October 31. The increase of 23,000 in continuing claims was a meaningful move in a series that has been watched closely as a gauge of how quickly unemployed workers are being reabsorbed into employment.
Despite the rise in continuing claims, the insured unemployment rate held at 1.1 percent. The insured unemployment rate measures the share of workers covered by unemployment insurance who are receiving benefits, and it is a narrower measure than the headline unemployment rate. Its stability at 1.1 percent indicates that, relative to the size of the insured workforce, the number of people drawing benefits has not changed in the latest week.
The combination of falling initial claims and rising continuing claims is a pattern that economists have been watching for some time. It is consistent with a labor market in which employers are reluctant to cut staff but also cautious about hiring, so that the flow of workers into unemployment is low while the flow out of unemployment and back into work is slow. For workers, that can mean greater job security for those in work and a longer search for those who are out of work.
Open jobs and the road to Friday’s October jobs report
Separate data reported this week showed that there were 1.06 open jobs for every unemployed person in September, up from 1.02 in August. The ratio of job openings to unemployed workers is a measure of how tight the labor market is: when there are more open jobs than unemployed workers, employers must compete for a limited pool of available workers, while a lower ratio suggests that workers face more competition for each opening.
The rise in the ratio from 1.02 in August to 1.06 in September indicates that the balance between openings and job seekers tilted slightly further in favor of workers in September, even as hiring has slowed. The ratio remains a closely watched indicator because it captures both sides of the labor market at once, the demand for workers from employers and the supply of workers looking for jobs.
Attention now turns to the Labor Department’s October jobs report, which will be released on Friday, November 6, at 8:30 a.m. ET. The monthly report is the most comprehensive measure of the labor market, covering payroll growth, the unemployment rate, and wage growth, and it is watched closely by policymakers, investors, and economists.
The unemployment rate is forecast to remain unchanged at 4.2 percent in the October report, according to the expectations set out ahead of the release. The report will provide the fullest picture yet of how the labor market performed in October, including whether payroll growth held up and whether the unemployment rate stayed at the level that forecasters expect.
It is important to note, however, that the weekly claims figures released on Thursday fall outside the October jobs survey period, so they have no bearing on the October jobs report. The survey period for the monthly employment report covers a specific reference week in the middle of the month, and the claims data for the week ended October 31 fall after that window. The latest claims reading therefore tells us about layoffs in the final week of October, but it does not directly feed into the payroll and unemployment figures that will be published on Friday.
Even with that caveat, the claims data and the jobs report are read together as part of the same broader story about the labor market. The claims figures show that layoffs remained scarce through the end of October, while the jobs report on Friday will show whether hiring kept pace and whether the unemployment rate held at the forecast level of 4.2 percent. Together, the two releases will give a fuller picture of a labor market that has so far combined low layoffs with slower hiring, and the October jobs report will be the next major test of that picture.
Sources
USN reviewed reporting from multiple outlets for this story. Read more from Reuters via WNFL Sports, Industrial Equipment News and SourceFirst News.