Ten years after the Paris Agreement entered into force on 4 Nov 2016, a review published on 5 Nov 2026 finds that most major economies have missed the goal of limiting warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. The anniversary, which might have been a moment to record progress towards that goal, instead records a shortfall. The goal that was set a decade ago has not been met, and the evidence published on the anniversary points in the same direction: warming has continued, emissions have risen rather than fallen, and the path that current policies point to is far warmer than the one that was promised.
The review’s finding is stated in broad terms — most major economies have missed the goal — and it is supported by a series of figures that describe where the world now stands. In 2024 the planet was more than 1.5°C warmer than pre-industrial levels across a full calendar year for the first time. The years 2023–2025 were the hottest three years on record. The long-term warming average now stands at about 1.4°C. Each of those figures describes a different aspect of the same picture, and together they show how close the world has come to the 1.5°C limit, and how the limit has been passed in a single year even as the longer-term average remains just below it.
In October 2026, the UN Environment Programme said the chance of keeping warming to 1.5°C without overshooting it has been lost. Global emissions, the same programme’s assessment noted, are 9% higher than in 2016. That comparison — emissions now against emissions in the year the Paris Agreement entered into force — is a direct measure of what has happened in the decade since the agreement took effect. Emissions have not fallen. They have risen by 9% over that period, and they stay near record highs.
The outlook has improved since 2015, but that improvement does not change the central finding. Policies in 2015 pointed to about 3.6°C of warming by 2100. Policies now point to about 2.6°C of warming by 2100. The difference between those two figures is real, and it shows that the direction of travel has changed. But progress has stalled since 2021, and current policies still point to far more warming than promised. A projected 2.6°C is still far above the 1.5°C goal, and the stall since 2021 means that the improvement recorded since 2015 has not continued at the pace that would be needed to close the remaining gap.
Paris Agreement 10 Years On: The 1.5C Goal Has Been Missed
The Paris Agreement entered into force on 4 Nov 2016. Ten years later, on 5 Nov 2026, a review finds that most major economies have missed the goal of limiting warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. The anniversary therefore marks a decade in which the central goal of the agreement has not been achieved. The finding is not that no progress has been made at all. It is that the specific goal — limiting warming to 1.5°C — has been missed by most major economies, and that the world as a whole has not stayed within the limit that was set.
Limiting warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels was the goal against which the decade is being judged. Pre-industrial levels provide the baseline, and 1.5°C above that baseline is the threshold. The review’s finding is that most major economies have missed that goal. The word “most” matters here, because it indicates that the shortfall is not confined to a small number of countries. It is a widespread pattern among the major economies whose emissions and policies shape the global outcome.
The ten-year mark is a natural point at which to take stock. A decade has passed since the agreement entered into force, and the review published on the anniversary uses that decade as its frame. What it finds is that the goal has been missed, that emissions are higher than they were when the agreement took effect, and that the warming recorded in recent years has reached levels that were meant to be avoided. The anniversary is therefore not only a commemoration. It is also a measurement, and the measurement shows a gap between what was promised and what has happened.
That gap is the theme that runs through the rest of the review’s findings. The single year above 1.5°C, the hottest three years on record, the long-term average of about 1.4°C, the 9% rise in emissions since 2016, and the projected warming of about 2.6°C by 2100 are all ways of describing the same gap from different angles. Each figure adds a piece to the picture, and the picture as a whole is one in which the 1.5°C goal has been missed and the world remains on a path to far more warming than was promised.
2024: The First Full Year Above 1.5C
In 2024 the planet was more than 1.5°C warmer than pre-industrial levels across a full calendar year for the first time. That sentence carries several distinct points, and each of them matters. The year was 2024. The warming was more than 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. It was measured across a full calendar year. And it was the first time that had happened. A single year above the threshold does not by itself mean that the long-term goal has been finally and permanently passed, because the long-term average is a separate measure. But a full calendar year above 1.5°C is still a milestone, and it is the first time it has been recorded.
The distinction between a single year and the long-term average is important to understanding where the world stands. The long-term warming average now stands at about 1.4°C. That figure is below 1.5°C, but it is close to it. The gap between about 1.4°C and 1.5°C is small, and the fact that a single year has already passed 1.5°C shows how close the longer-term average is to the threshold. The single-year figure and the long-term average therefore tell a consistent story: warming has risen to the point where the threshold is being crossed in individual years, and the average is approaching the threshold as well.
That 2024 was the first full calendar year above 1.5°C also places the milestone in time. It happened in the decade after the Paris Agreement entered into force, and it happened before the tenth anniversary. It is not a distant projection. It is a recorded year, and it is the first such year. The fact that it is described as the first time indicates that no earlier full calendar year had reached that level. The year 2024 therefore stands as a marker in the record: the year in which warming across a full calendar year first passed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.
The significance of that marker lies in what it shows about the direction of warming. Warming has not stayed well below the threshold. It has risen to the threshold and, in 2024, passed it for a full year. The long-term average of about 1.4°C shows that the average has not yet passed the threshold, but the single-year figure shows that the threshold is no longer a distant limit. It is a level that has already been reached, if only for a year, and the proximity of the average to the threshold suggests that the single-year crossing is not an isolated anomaly in the broader trend.
The Hottest Three Years on Record: 2023 to 2025
The years 2023–2025 were the hottest three years on record. That finding covers a three-year period, and it places those three years at the top of the record. The hottest three years on record are not spread across different decades. They are three consecutive years, 2023, 2024 and 2025, and together they form the warmest three-year stretch that has been recorded. The concentration of the hottest years in such a short and recent period is itself a central part of the picture.
The period 2023–2025 includes 2024, the year that was more than 1.5°C warmer than pre-industrial levels across a full calendar year for the first time. The two findings are therefore linked. The year that first passed 1.5°C across a full calendar year is also one of the three hottest years on record, and the other two years in that three-year group are the years immediately before and after it. The hottest three years on record are, in other words, the three most recent years in the period covered by the review, and they include the year of the first full-year crossing above 1.5°C.
That the hottest three years are the three most recent years also matters for the longer-term average. The long-term warming average now stands at about 1.4°C. A run of three record-hot years will push that average upwards, and the fact that the three hottest years are so recent suggests that the average is being shaped by the warmth of the present period rather than by cooler years in the past. The average of about 1.4°C is therefore not a figure that stands apart from the recent record. It reflects it, and the recent record is one of unprecedented warmth.
The phrase “on record” indicates that the comparison is made against the full record of temperatures that has been kept. The years 2023–2025 stand at the top of that record as a group. No earlier three-year group was hotter. The finding is therefore not only that individual years were warm, but that the three-year period as a whole was the warmest such period on record. That group finding, combined with the single-year finding for 2024, gives a picture of warmth that is both intense in a single year and sustained across three years.
Emissions 9% Higher Than in 2016
Global emissions are 9% higher than in 2016. That comparison is made against the year the Paris Agreement entered into force, and it is one of the starkest findings in the review. Ten years after the agreement took effect, emissions have not fallen. They have risen by 9% over that period. The figure describes the change in global emissions between 2016 and the present, and it shows that the direction of emissions over the decade has been upwards, not downwards.
The 9% rise is reported alongside the statement that emissions stay near record highs. The two points belong together. Emissions are higher than they were in 2016, and they remain near the highest levels recorded. The combination means that the decade since the Paris Agreement entered into force has not seen the sustained fall in emissions that would be needed to limit warming to 1.5°C. Instead, emissions have grown, and they remain at levels close to the record.
The choice of 2016 as the baseline is significant. It is the year the agreement entered into force, on 4 Nov 2016. Measuring emissions against that year therefore measures what has happened since the agreement took effect. A 9% rise over that period means that the world is emitting more now than it was when the agreement began. The goal of limiting warming to 1.5°C would require emissions to fall, not to rise. The fact that they have risen by 9% is therefore directly relevant to why the goal has been missed.
The figure also helps to explain the warming figures reported alongside it. Warming of more than 1.5°C in 2024, the hottest three years on record in 2023–2025, and a long-term average of about 1.4°C are all consistent with a decade in which emissions rose rather than fell. Emissions are the driver of warming, and a rise in emissions over the decade is the background against which the temperature records have been set. The 9% figure is not an isolated statistic. It is the emissions side of the same story that the temperature figures tell from the warming side.
The UN Assessment: The Chance Without Overshoot Is Lost
In October 2026, the UN Environment Programme said the chance of keeping warming to 1.5°C without overshooting it has been lost. That statement, made in the month before the tenth anniversary of the Paris Agreement, is one of the most consequential findings in the review. It does not say only that the goal has been missed. It says that the chance of keeping warming to 1.5°C without overshooting it — without passing the threshold and then coming back — has been lost. The distinction between keeping warming below the threshold and overshooting it and returning is central to the statement.
Overshooting means passing the threshold before returning below it, if a return is possible at all. The UN Environment Programme’s statement is that the chance of avoiding that overshoot has been lost. Warming will, on this assessment, pass 1.5°C before any return, if a return happens. The statement therefore goes beyond the finding that a single year, 2024, was already more than 1.5°C warmer than pre-industrial levels. It addresses the longer-term path, and it says that the path without overshoot is no longer available.
The timing of the statement is also significant. It was made in October 2026, shortly before the review published on 5 Nov 2026. The two are close in time, and they point in the same direction. The review finds that most major economies have missed the goal. The UN Environment Programme’s statement explains one dimension of that miss: the chance of meeting the goal without overshooting it has been lost. Together, the two findings describe a goal that has not only been missed in the present, but whose original form — keeping warming to 1.5°C without passing it — is no longer attainable.
That the statement comes from the UN Environment Programme gives it weight. The programme is identified as the source of the assessment, and its statement is reported as a finding about the prospects for the 1.5°C goal. It is not presented as a speculation about a distant future. It is presented as an assessment made in October 2026, based on where emissions and warming now stand. The loss of the chance without overshoot is therefore a current assessment, made in the weeks before the tenth anniversary.
A Better Outlook Than 2015, But Still Far From the Promise
The outlook has improved since 2015. Policies then pointed to about 3.6°C of warming by 2100. Policies now point to about 2.6°C of warming by 2100. The difference between those two projections is a full degree, and it represents a real improvement in the expected outcome. In 2015, the path pointed to warming of about 3.6°C by the end of the century. Now, the path points to warming of about 2.6°C by 2100. The direction has improved, and the expected warming by 2100 is lower than it was.
That improvement, however, does not bring the world close to the 1.5°C goal. A projected warming of about 2.6°C by 2100 is still far above 1.5°C. The gap between 2.6°C and 1.5°C is more than a degree, and it is the gap between current policies and the promise of the Paris Agreement. The improvement since 2015 has narrowed the gap, but it has not closed it. Current policies still point to far more warming than promised, and the 2.6°C figure is the measure of how far the current path remains from the goal.
The comparison between 2015 and now therefore tells two stories at once. One is a story of improvement: from about 3.6°C to about 2.6°C. The other is a story of continued shortfall: from a goal of 1.5°C to a projected 2.6°C. Both stories are true, and both need to be held together to understand where the world stands. The improvement shows that policies have changed the expected outcome. The shortfall shows that the change has not been enough to meet the goal that was set a decade ago.
The year 2100 is the horizon for both projections. Policies in 2015 pointed to about 3.6°C of warming by 2100. Policies now point to about 2.6°C by 2100. The horizon is the same, and the comparison is therefore a direct one: the same end point, measured under different policies. The improvement is measured at that horizon, and the shortfall is also measured at that horizon. The 2.6°C figure is not a figure for the present. It is a projection for 2100 under current policies, and it is the figure against which the promise of 1.5°C must be judged.
Progress Stalled Since 2021
Progress has stalled since 2021. That finding is reported alongside the improvement since 2015, and it qualifies that improvement. The improvement from about 3.6°C to about 2.6°C happened over the period since 2015, but the progress that produced it has not continued. Since 2021, progress has stalled. The stall means that the improvement recorded since 2015 has not been followed by further improvement at the pace that would be needed to close the remaining gap to 1.5°C.
A stall since 2021 places the pause in the most recent years of the decade. The years since 2021 include the hottest three years on record, 2023–2025, and the year 2024, in which warming first passed 1.5°C across a full calendar year. The stall therefore coincides with the period in which warming has been at its highest. Progress on policies has stalled at the same time as temperatures have reached record levels, and emissions have remained near record highs and 9% higher than in 2016.
The stall also helps to explain why current policies still point to far more warming than promised. If progress had continued after 2021, the projected warming by 2100 might have fallen further below 2.6°C. Because progress stalled, the projection has remained at about 2.6°C, far above the 1.5°C goal. The stall is therefore not only a description of the recent past. It is also an explanation for why the current projection remains so far from the promise.
The combination of improvement since 2015 and a stall since 2021 gives a picture of a decade in two parts: an earlier part in which the outlook improved, and a more recent part in which that improvement stopped. The tenth anniversary falls at the end of the second part, and the review published on that anniversary records both parts. The improvement is real, but the stall means that the improvement has not been sustained, and the world remains on a path to warming far above the level that was promised when the Paris Agreement entered into force.
What the Tenth Anniversary Shows
The tenth anniversary of the Paris Agreement, marked on 5 Nov 2026, ten years after the agreement entered into force on 4 Nov 2016, shows a world that has missed its central climate goal. Most major economies have missed the goal of limiting warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. In 2024 the planet was more than 1.5°C warmer than pre-industrial levels across a full calendar year for the first time. The years 2023–2025 were the hottest three years on record. The long-term warming average now stands at about 1.4°C. Global emissions are 9% higher than in 2016. In October 2026, the UN Environment Programme said the chance of keeping warming to 1.5°C without overshooting it has been lost.
At the same time, the anniversary shows that the outlook has improved since 2015, from about 3.6°C of warming by 2100 to about 2.6°C. That improvement is the one clear gain recorded in the review, and it shows that the direction of policy has changed since before the agreement entered into force. But the improvement has not been enough, and progress has stalled since 2021. Current policies still point to far more warming than promised, and the 2.6°C projection remains far above the 1.5°C goal.
The anniversary therefore presents a mixed picture, but one in which the shortfall dominates. The goal has been missed. Emissions are higher. Warming has reached record levels. The chance without overshoot has been lost. The improvement since 2015 is real, but it leaves the world far from the promise. The review published on 5 Nov 2026 records that picture in full, and it is the picture against which the next decade of climate action will be judged.
Sources
USN reviewed reporting from multiple outlets for this story. Read more from Al Jazeera, Greenpeace International and Frontiers in Public Health.