The 2026 midterm elections are over, but for Democrats, the next campaign has already begun, at least in the conversations, speculation, and early manoeuvring that will shape the party’s choice of a presidential nominee in 2028. With no incumbent Democrat in the White House and with the party having just won a significant victory in the midterms, the field of potential candidates is wide open, and it includes a mix of governors who have won in swing states, senators who have built national profiles, and other figures who have yet to declare their intentions but are already being discussed as contenders.
The early conversation is not a formal primary. No one has announced a candidacy, and the actual race will not begin in earnest for many months. But the names being mentioned, the strengths and weaknesses attributed to each, and the debates about what kind of candidate the party needs, offer a window into how Democrats are thinking about their future and about the lessons of the 2026 midterms. The party’s choice in 2028 will be shaped by who performed well in 2026, by which issues resonated with voters, and by how the party positions itself against a Republican Party that will also be choosing its next standard-bearer.
The Governors in the Early Conversation
Governors are often the strongest presidential candidates, because they have executive experience, a record of governing, and a base of support in their home states. In the Democratic field for 2028, several governors are frequently mentioned. These include governors of large, diverse states who have won re-election and who have implemented policies that are popular with the party’s base, such as expanding healthcare access, protecting abortion rights, and investing in clean energy and education.
Governors from swing states are particularly attractive, because they have demonstrated an ability to win in competitive environments and to appeal to independent voters. A governor who has won in a state that is closely divided between Democrats and Republicans can argue that they know how to build a coalition that can win nationally. Conversely, a governor from a safely Democratic state may face questions about whether their record will translate to a national electorate that is more conservative than their home state.
The governors in the early conversation also face a challenge: governing is different from campaigning, and a record that is popular in one state may be a liability nationally. A governor who has raised taxes to fund programmes, for example, may be praised by progressives but criticised by moderates and by Republicans. A governor who has taken a more centrist approach may be seen as electable but uninspiring to the party’s base. Balancing these considerations will be central to any governor’s presidential campaign.
The Senators in the Early Conversation
Senators are the other major group in the early Democratic conversation for 2028. Senators have national profiles, experience with foreign policy and federal legislation, and networks of donors and supporters across the country. Several Democratic senators are mentioned as potential candidates, including those who have been prominent on issues such as healthcare, climate change, economic inequality, and voting rights.
Senators face a different set of challenges from governors. They do not have executive experience, and their voting records can be used against them in a primary and a general election. A senator who has voted for controversial legislation, or who has taken positions that are unpopular with swing voters, may struggle to present themselves as a unifying candidate. On the other hand, a senator who has built a reputation as an effective legislator and a strong communicator may be able to overcome these challenges, particularly if they can point to concrete achievements.
The Senate also provides a platform for potential candidates to raise their profiles in the years leading up to 2028. Senators who chair committees, who lead on major legislation, or who become prominent critics of the administration can build the name recognition and credibility they will need to run. The next two years, in which Democrats will control the Senate or be in a strong position within it, depending on the final results, will be a crucial period for senators who are considering a presidential run.
What Democrats Learned From the Midterms
The 2026 midterms offer several lessons that will shape the Democratic presidential primary. First, the party’s success in winning state legislatures, secretary of state races, and other down-ballot contests suggests that voters were receptive to a message focused on democracy, voting rights, and competent governance. A presidential candidate who can credibly claim to defend democracy and to govern effectively may have an advantage.
Second, the midterms showed that economic issues remain central to voters’ concerns, even when democracy and other issues are prominent. Voters who are worried about the cost of living, healthcare costs, and job security will look for a candidate who has a credible plan to address those concerns. A candidate who focuses only on cultural or procedural issues may struggle to connect with voters who are primarily concerned about their economic well-being.
Third, the midterms demonstrated the importance of candidate quality and of the ability to appeal to swing voters. In races where Democrats nominated candidates who were seen as too extreme or out of touch, they sometimes lost even in favourable environments. In races where they nominated candidates who could appeal across the political spectrum, they often won. That lesson is likely to weigh heavily in the presidential primary, where electability will be a central argument.
The Shape of the Primary to Come
The Democratic primary for 2028 is likely to be competitive and, at times, divisive, as candidates from different wings of the party compete for the nomination. Progressives will argue that the party needs a bold, transformative candidate who will push for major changes on healthcare, climate, and economic policy. Moderates will argue that the party needs a candidate who can win swing states and who will govern pragmatically. Both arguments have merit, and the primary will be a test of which vision the party’s voters prefer.
The primary will also be shaped by external factors, including the state of the economy, the actions of the Trump administration, and the identity of the Republican nominee. If the economy is strong, voters may be more willing to support a candidate who promises continuity and stability. If the economy is weak, voters may look for a candidate who promises change. If the Republican nominee is seen as extreme, Democrats may prioritise electability. If the Republican nominee is seen as moderate, Democrats may feel freer to choose a more progressive candidate.
For now, the early conversation about the 2028 Democratic field is just that: a conversation. No candidate has announced, no votes have been cast, and the field will change dramatically over the next two years as candidates emerge, drop out, and reposition themselves. But the names being mentioned now, the governors and senators who are in the early conversation, are likely to include the eventual nominee, or at least to shape the debate that produces them. The 2026 midterms have given Democrats momentum and a sense of possibility. Whether they can translate that momentum into a winning presidential campaign in 2028 will depend on the choices they make in the months and years ahead, starting with the choice of who will lead them.
Sources
USN reviewed reporting from multiple outlets for this story. Read more from Politico, Le Monde and The Guardian.